Archive for November, 2009

“It Came To Me In A Dream” Twilight Envy

Monday, November 30th, 2009

I am going to diverge from my normal subject matter to comment on this weekend’s box office experience at “New Moon.” Having missed the Beatles, I had not experienced the raw power of teenage girls going batty (pun intended) over vampires and werewolves or anything else until seeing “New Moon” with my fiance and his daughters over the weekend. It was an amazing experience, though not due to cinematic excellence. It was the screaming, the hyperventilation, the giggling, the raw desire that those 14 year old girls were experiencing that was the EXPERIENCE.  While in the loo, a gaggle of girls came in whom I honestly thought needed medical attention, so shallow their breathing, their crys of anguish so jaggedly real. It was only their hysterical laughter that made me snap back to reality and the understanding that it was not impending death but Taylor Laughtnor’s abs and Robert Pattinson’s smolder that had the girls whipped into their oxygen-deprived frenzy.

Robert PattinsonTaylor Lautner

How do I say this without sounding like a snob? Well, probably there isn’t a way, so I’ll just say it: Stephanie Meyers is no Shakespeare. She most likely will not become a regular contributor to The New Yorker anytime soon. But perhaps the message is that box office success does not require a Masters in Fine Arts or Creative Writing. Perhaps we all need to listen to our dreams and risk the foolishness of a few months “wasted” writing them down.

Mortgage and Economic Update for 11/16/09

Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

Reprinted Courtesy of Natasha Lovas, Guaranteed Mortgage

Keeping you updated on the market!
For the week of

November 16, 2009


MARKET RECAP

A popular journalism cliché states, “If it bleeds, it leads.” The gist being that bad news sells, so no wonder that many in the business media lead with an NAR report stating home prices fell in the third quarter from year-ago levels in 80% of U.S. metropolitan areas, while the national median price for single-family homes fell 11.2% to $177,900.

We cannot argue the numbers; they are true. The financial crisis of 2008 hit full bloom in the third quarter of 2008, and its fallout ravaged the housing market over the subsequent six months. However, we all knew that, so is it really news?

If we dig a little deeper, we find that average home prices actually rose 2.2% during the third quarter. Moreover, if we dig deeper still, we find that several of the poster-child markets improved substantially: Median home prices in Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Fla. , a market that epitomized the market collapse, improved 4.6% over the quarter to $217,000, while Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale saw prices rise 8.8% to $142,700.

Legitimate concerns weigh on the housing market, to be sure. Few outweigh foreclosures. RealtyTrac estimates as many as 3.4 million households will receive a foreclosure notice this year, a 48% increase over last year. Moreover, RealtyTrac sees only marginal improvement in 2011. We do not want to understate the foreclosure problem (if the employment situation does not improve soon, foreclosures could indeed rise), but it is worth noting that foreclosures dipped 3% in October from September even as unemployment rose.

On a more positive note, we are encouraged by the turning of homebuilder fortunes. Atlanta-based Beazer Homes returned to profitability in its fiscal-year fourth quarter, earning $35.3 million. Even more encouraging, the country’s largest luxury homebuilder, Toll Brothers, reported that its contracts increased 42% in units and 62% in dollar amount in its fiscal-year fourth quarter compared to the same quarter in 2008.

The dramatic turnaround in Toll Brothers’ business suggests the recovery isn’t confined to the lower end of the housing market, nor is it solely dependent on government stimulation. Given the income required to buy a Toll Brothers home, most of the purchasers were likely ineligible for the government homebuyer’s credit.

Economic
Indicator
Release
Date and Time
Consensus
Estimate
Analysis

Retail Sales
(October)

Mon, Nov. 16,
8:30 am, et

0.8%
(Increase)

Important. Consumers are willing to spend even without incentives.

Producer Price Index
(October)

Tues, Nov. 17,
8:30 am, et

All Goods: 0.4% (Increase)
Core: 0.1% (Increase)

Important. Recent data suggest producer-induced inflation remains a non-issue.

Industrial Production
(October)

Tues, Nov. 17,
9:15 am, et

0.4%
(Increase)
Important. Gains are expected in all major industrial sectors.

Housing Market Index
(November)

Tues, Nov. 17,
1:00 pm, et

19 Index
Important. Confidence should rise on improving profitability and increased buyer traffic.

Mortgage Applications

Wed, Nov. 18,
7:00 am, et

None
Important. Purchase activity should increase on extension of the federal homebuyer tax credit.

Consumer Price Index
(October)

Wed, Nov. 18,
8:30 am, et

All Goods: 0.2% (Increase)
Core: 0.1% (Increase)

Important. Negligible increases in prices will help keep lending rates low.

Housing Starts
(October)

Wed, Nov. 18,
8:30 am, et

600,000 (Annualized)

Important. After a robust summer, starts could level off over the next month or two.

Leading Indicators
(October)

Thurs, Nov. 19,
10:00 am, et

0.4%
(Increase)
Moderately Important. The indicators continue to point to a sustained economic recovery.
Still the Time to Borrow and Buy

For the past four months, we have been forwarding the argument that housing prices have stabilized. Wells Fargo has provided another arrow for our quiver. To avoid defaults and foreclosures, the banking giant is offering homeowners with Alt-A ARMs the option to offset monthly payment increases with interest-only loans to defer amortization for six to 10 years.

It sounds like a risky move. After all, interest-only loans were a contributing factor to the housing meltdown. But many of those loans were originated in a much riskier era – near a market top. That is certainly not the case today, which is why Wells Fargo is betting that home prices have stabilized and that the economy will improve. We think it is a smart move.

We also think it is a smart move to refinance or buy today. Rates are very, very good (but they will not be forever, for sundry reasons we have previously stated). What’s more, the purse strings aren’t nearly as tight as borrowers might think. According to the Federal Reserve, the rate of banks that reported tightening lending standards for prime residential real estate loans was 25% in October, which is well off the peak of 75% reported in July 2008.

In other words, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are readily available at 5% (which for borrowers in the 28% federal income tax bracket works out to 3.6% after tax). Meanwhile, the 5/1 hybrid ARM presents an intriguing option for borrowers planning to move within the next few years. A 3.75% 5/1 works out to a mere 2.7% after tax for someone in the 28% tax bracket. Yes, rates could go lower, but not much lower.

 

 
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One theory on interest rates staying low

Thursday, November 12th, 2009

Bill Gross, the lauded fund-manager of Pimco Funds, is a good writer. He also has consistently outperformed the market with his family of funds. Here’s his take on why interest rates are going to stay low for the forseeable 12-18 months:

 

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2002/IO_03_2002.htm

Media will go to town on new Fannie Mae requirements but…

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

Honestly, you should not worry. Net net; Fannie Mae, who is responsible for the underwriting guidelines for about 85% of all loans issues, is lowering the debt to income ratio to a high of 45%. Basically they’re saying you should not be given a loan that is equal to 45% of your income. And that sounds like pretty good advice. 45% is still a very big percentage. As long as you look at property that you can afford, you should not have any trouble getting a loan.

Home Buyer Seminar this Saturday, November 14th

Monday, November 9th, 2009

Homebuyer Seminar- Topics

Place: Zephyr Real Estate, 215 West Portal Ave., San Francisco   Cross St: Vicente

Date:  11/14

Time: 10:30AM-12PM

Who Should Attend:  Anyone who hasn’t bought a property in the last two years

Focus: The rules of the banking world have changed.  My Saturday morning seminar will address how the changes will affect or possibly prevent your home purchase and provide solutions to work around the new realities.

Additional Topics- customized to group’s interest

·         When you are locked in to an offer?

·         When is the Seller locked in?

·         Offer Strategies/Offers that get accepted

·         Home Search Strategies for finding and making preemptive offers on  desirable  properties

·         Speed Wins

·         What happens after you make an offer?

·         The San Francisco Real Estate Purchase Contract- what do you need to know?

·         BMR Properties

·         Down Payment Loan Assistance Program

·         FHA loans

·         Conventional Financing

·         Banking Timelines (Boring, but important)

Seating is limited to 8 people; Please R.S.V.P to Charlotte Erwin  415-279-0289

Favorite SF FamilyHomes This Week $875K and Under

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Having grown up in Durham, North Carolina, I accept the absurdity of a headline promoting “homes under $875K” as if they were blue-light specials at the Walmart. Granted they are not, and granted we are talking about a lot of money. Where I grew up, you were living very large in anything over about $450,000. But we don’t live in North Carolina, we live in gorgeous San Francisco, and those are the rules of the game here.

If you have children, and want them to live with you, you probably need at least a three-bedroom living space. I have spent a good deal of time and gas money searching for just such homes. My goal is your goal- find the nicest and largest place in the best hood I can for the least amount of money.

Following are three homes I think you could live in comfortably with your cubs- Pictures AND a financing scenarios with a few different downpayments to follow.

666 26th Ave - Three Bedroom, two bath with additional Attic Space and full In-law downstairs: $875,000K

 

849 45th Ave: 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 1879 Sq Feet

$799,000K

 

 

Finally: 719 33rd Ave: $749,000K, a 2 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom home with a room for expansion in basement:

 

 

Here’s How Your Payments look with $175,000 down:

$875,000 Purchase, with $175,000 down: (20%)

Closing Costs: Approximately $14,760

Principal, Interest, Taxes and Insurance Monthly Payment: “PITI” $4,968.66

$799,000 Purchase, with $159,800 down (20%)

Closing Costs: Approximatly $13,762

Principal, Interest, Taxes, and Insurance Monthly Payment: “PITI” $4,537.00

$749,000 Purchase, with $150,000 down (20%)

Closing Costs: Approximately $13,101

Principal, Interest, Taxes, and Insurance Monthly Payment: “PITI” $4,252.00

 

Have Questions? Want to know how much house you can afford? Embarassed to admit, but could you use help with a budget? There are no stupid questions!!! I will analyze your budget, I will tell you how much you can purchase, and most importantly, I CAN find you a great home whatever your budget is.

Charlotte Erwin

DRE # 01845369

415-279-0289

Largest Annual Home Sales Increase ever Recorded

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Washington, November 02, 2009

Pending home sales rose again, marking eight consecutive monthly gains – the longest streak since measurement began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September, rose 6.1 percent to 110.1 from a reading of 103.8 in August, and is 21.2 percent higher than September 2008 when it stood at 90.9. The gain from a year ago is the largest annual increase on record, and the index is at the highest level since December 2006 when it was 112.8.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the momentum is understandable. “What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month,” he said. “Home values will stabilize sooner rather than over-correcting. That, in turn, will mean wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families and lay the foundation for a durable economic recovery.”

So- perk up, my Laddies and Lassies! 

We’re gonna be fine.

Home Prices Increase Nationally Fourth Consecutive Month/Win a Bottle of Wine

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

Real-estate prices increased for the fourth consecutive month, but consumers are feeling more glum, a disconnect that shows how rising unemployment continues to weigh on households even as the economy improves.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price composite 20-city index rose 1.2% in August from July, with help from lower mortgage rates and a push from the $8,000 federal first-time home-buyer tax credit that expires next month.

JUST THOUGHT YOU SHOULD KNOW. However, as an astute follower of all things financial, you know that we are not out of de woods just yet. Business bankruptcies increased October 09 versus September 09 slightly, and people feel gloomy.

Here’s a question: Do you think home sales will drop December 2009 versus December 2010 without the stimulus of the Tax Credit?

I will pick one winner for a bottle of wine if any of youse loyal readers take the time to answer that one.

 

Maybe the answer is live well while living within your means until this storm blows over…